Art Toys After the Labubu Craze: Pop Mart Slows Down, Where Is the Market Heading?

1. Sixfold growth in two years

Pop Mart did not invent the blind box or the art toy. The mystery box model has long existed in Japan, and vinyl figures by independent artists grew out of Hong Kong, Tokyo and New York from the early 2000s. What Pop Mart did differently was turn art toys into a retail chain. It signs long-term contracts with artists, owns the IP, designs its own products, and runs its own stores and vending machines.

Labubu, the jagged-toothed elf drawn by artist Kasing Lung, belongs to The Monsters IP group and has been sold by Pop Mart since 2019. For many years, Labubu was known only among collectors.

From then on, the vinyl-face plush version made to hang on bags turned Labubu from a collectible into a fashion accessory, and Pop Mart's revenue grew exponentially.

In 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of RMB 37.12 billion, up 184.7%. Adjusted net profit reached 13.08 billion, with a gross margin of 72.1%. The Monsters alone brought in 14.16 billion, up 365.7%. That is about 38% of total revenue, and it is the company's first IP to pass 10 billion in a single year. Revenue outside China grew 291.9% to 16.27 billion, about 44% of total revenue, of which the Americas contributed 6.81 billion.

2. The August 2025 peak

On Aug 20, 2025, Pop Mart released its first-half 2025 results and the shares rose about 13% in one session, passing HK$300 for the first time. On Aug 26, 2025, the price hit an all-time high of HK$339.80. Market capitalization was then around HK$400 billion, higher than many long-established Western toy groups.

On the secondary market, some Labubu designs resold for several times their list price. According to Reuters, the "Luck" design at times exceeded RMB 500 on resale platforms in June 2025. Counterfeits, which collectors call "Lafufu", appeared everywhere, from Asian night markets to markets in the UK, where local authorities seized hundreds of units and issued safety warnings.

3. Four stages of cooling

1. Sep–Oct 2025Resale prices collapsed after supply rose 10 times.

   Pop Mart said it had raised plush output, including Labubu, about 10 times, to about 30 million units a month. The "Luck" design fell from more than RMB 500 to about RMB 108 on the secondary market; some other designs fell below the store price. The shares fell about 20–24% from the peak. Pop Mart said it welcomed the fall in resale prices, as curbing speculation was its aim.

2. Mar 25, 2026Record 2025 results, yet the shares fell more than 22% in one session.

   Revenue came in below the analyst expectation of about 38 billion, and investors were concerned to see almost 40% of revenue depending on one IP group. Pop Mart set a growth target of at least 20% for 2026.

3. Aug 20, 2026First half of 2026: total revenue up 23.8%, but The Monsters declined for the first time.

   Revenue reached RMB 17.17 billion, below the 19–20 billion forecast. The Monsters fell 7.5% to 4.45 billion, and its share fell from 34.7% to 26%. Overseas revenue fell 11.1% to 4.97 billion; online sales in the Americas alone fell 45.6%. The shares fell more than 8% after the release.

4. Oct 27, 2026Q3 2026: revenue down 45–50%.

   JPMorgan had forecast a decline of about 37%; the actual figure was worse. The shares at one point fell 6% to HK$123.8, an 18-month low and about 64% below the August 2025 peak.

Within China, the picture is uneven: stores fell only 5–10%, while online fell 45–50%. Management expects every region to grow again quarter on quarter during the year-end holiday season, and China to grow for the full year. This is a company forecast, not independently confirmed.

4. Why Labubu cooled

5. The global art toy picture

Looking at Pop Mart alone, it is easy to conclude that art toys are in decline. Industry-wide data shows the opposite.

• Global toys are growing again. According to Circana, toy sales across 12 major markets rose 7% in value in 2025, after three years of decline, and for the first time in Circana's tracking history, every market grew.
• Collectibles are the main driver. The collectibles segment grew 32% and made up almost 19% of global toy sales by value.
• Adults are an important customer group. According to Circana data through September 2025, people aged 12 and over accounted for 35% of toy sales in Germany.
• China is still the largest market. According to Frost & Sullivan, cited in a 2026 Hong Kong listing prospectus, China's pop toy market reached RMB 87.5 billion in GMV in 2025.

Art toy market size: estimates differ 15 times

A search for "art toy market size" returns very different figures. The reason is that each report defines art toys in its own way: some count only figures by independent artists, while others also include licensed character blind boxes, trading cards and plush.

6. Who is rising after Labubu

Two product trends stand out. First, plush and soft materials are growing faster than hard plastic figures, as Pop Mart's plush category figures show. Second, listed retailers are all moving from one hit IP to a portfolio of IPs, and from online sales to flagship stores that keep customers over the long term.

In June 2026, Labubu became the first art toy IP chosen by FIFA for official World Cup merchandise. The collection launched simultaneously in more than 40 countries and territories, and two Labubu mascots appeared at the opening ceremony in Mexico City on June 11, 2026. This is how Pop Mart extends an IP's life cycle: it takes the character out of the box and into sports, fashion and food.

7. Vietnam: from overnight queues to sell-offs

Pop Mart entered Vietnam in 2024 with its first two stores in District 7, Ho Chi Minh City, and at Sun World Ba Na Hills, Da Nang. In August 2024, Tuổi Trẻ reported young people camping overnight at a shopping mall in District 7 to buy Labubu.

At the same time came the Baby Three craze, a line of vinyl-face plush blind boxes from China, sold widely at markets and on e-commerce platforms. Market surveillance authorities asked local agencies to step up inspections after some Baby Three products were found with images related to the "nine-dash line".

By the end of 2025, VnExpress reported that resale prices for Labubu and Baby Three had fallen about 24%, and in collector groups, posts selling far outnumbered posts looking to buy. Many people who bought to speculate had to sell at a loss.

8. Lessons for brands planning an art toy

Takara produces merchandise and blind boxes for brands through a network of partner factories. Based on the figures above and project experience, there are six points to consider before making an art toy or blind box.

1. Do not use resale price as the measure. Secondary prices reflect scarcity. They do not reflect attachment to the brand. Design for recipients who want to complete the set rather than resell it.
2. Design a series around several characters. Even Pop Mart was marked down by the market because almost 40% of its revenue depended on one IP group. A set of 5–7 designs with a shared story lasts longer than a single hit character.
3. Consider vinyl-face plush. This is Pop Mart's fastest-growing category. Takara's blind box project for Rohto Vietnam covered 23,400 plush units across 7 designs. R1 samples for the first 3 designs were ready in 7 days, and the order was delivered 25 days ahead of contract.
4. Declare your sales markets from the start. Each market has its own safety standards, such as EN71 in Europe or ASTM F963 in the US, carried out by partner factories and accredited labs. Corporate gifts in Vietnam that are not sold need only a valid VAT invoice.
5. Budget for mold costs early. Blind box figures need a steel mold for each part and have an MOQ from 3,000 pcs. A design with fewer separate parts reduces the number of molds and the lead time.
6. Protect the design. Labubu counterfeits show that a successful design is copied very quickly. Register the industrial design, sign an NDA with the manufacturer and control the design files from the start.

9. Predictions: what comes next

This section is Takara's view, based on the figures above. It is not a forecast by Pop Mart or by analysts.

10. Frequently asked questions